Halloween Sunday Bet Of The Week

[OccamsRazor]

YTD 1-0
SIDES 1-0
TOTALS 0-0

San Diego brought home the cash vs Panthers.

Wanted to post early to as line opened up at 5 and its been going up.

Yep, San Diego again. At home, better offense, better defense, better T.O. differential and catch hated Raiders in total disarray. To good to be true???
We'll see.

SANDIEGO-5' :toast:

Will update throughout the week

 

[dwax]

Os

I agree ... best bet on the board ... I doubled up on it at 5 1/2 .. Thanks for the pick....

 

[OccamsRazor]

With the Bengals winning the T.O. battle and the game last night, teams were 9-0 100% SU this last weekend when winning the T.O. battle. ( In 5 of the games the TO's were even) Nothing new as you all know that a team that wins the TO battle wins about 80% of the time SU. You might say, yeah but what about TOs and the pointspread? Well I don’t have the figure in front of me but we can easily reason it out.

Pointspread comes into play about 18% of the time meaning 82% of the time the pointspread has no bearing on the game ie. Either the favorite wins straight up and covers or the dog wins straight up and covers. 18% of the time the pointspread will affect the outcome.

So we are dealing with 2 80% probabilities it would be safe to reason that if you win the TO battle( 80%wins) and the pointspread doesn’t matter (82%) of the time if you win the TO battle you’ll most likely win the game and cover. If you have some time and want to do some reading check this old post out lots of good educational feedback and if I do say so myself.

http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=174917


The pointspread affected the outcome of only 2 games this last weekend: NE and Philly.

Back to the San Diego game why all the T.O. talk, well Raiders have the worse T.O. differential in the league. They turn it over more than anyone and take it away less than anyone. So in taking SanDiego we are aligning ourselves with some high probabilities.

More later as the week goes on.

 

[MERLIN]

Totally agree with you here Occamsrazor, i have been riding SD the last 4 games . I think SD sets up well here against Oakland.

League Rushing
Off:SD 9th vs Def:Oak 23rd
Off: Oak 29th vs Def: SD 3rd

League Passing
Off:SD 20th vs Def: Oak 15th
Off:Oak 10th vs Def: SD 28th

I think SD will force Oakland to throw more which touches on what you said earlier about turnovers. Collins should be good for a few interceptions.
Although SD is struggling with defending the pass, CB Sammy Davis did well after Coach Marty benched him in the last game. Drayton Florence took his place until he hurt his ankle, then Davis returned to do quite well.

Hopefully he can continue to do well as this is my only concern for SD!

I will be on SD with ya!
Good Luck to us!

 

[SSI]

Like Your selection of SD...

 

[LEYKIS101]

Razor,

I like the SD play, thanks.

Looking forward to your NBA plays.

Good luck! :drink:

 

[OccamsRazor]

From USATODAY

"The running game couldn't really get untracked in the first half. Much of it, though, was due to Tomlinson trying to run on a bad groin. He just didn't have the same burst which makes him so dangerous. But the run-blocking, too, wasn't up to snuff as the Carolina front line more than held its own against the Chargers' line. Backup Jesse Chatman again comes in and delivers a spark. He had a team-high 69 yards on just eight carries. He had a 5-yard touchdown run and a long of 52."

Tomlinson has not practiced this week but says he is going to play. His groin injury hurt the team against Caro as the running game had no spark and Tomlinson fumbled on the Chargers first play. You were able to appreciate how Tomlinson's injury impacted him after Chatman came in. The kid seemed to be running downhill. If Tomlinson is unable to go. The running game is in good hands... maybe,, dont know if this Chatman kid has good hands. Any insight on Chatman's pass catching ability? Brees likes to throw that swing pass a lot.

 

[kayaman]

I wasn't planning on registering again since the new system was put up, but mr. razor you got me curious.

i like this method that you are using. but i have a question. i decied to go and take a look at this weeks games, using your criteria, and found four others, that i think could follow under your method. They would be the Giants, Lions, Seahawks, and Bears. Can you tell me if i'm reading this write? Thanks

 

[WharfRat+]

The problem I'm having with this game is everyone and their sister is on SD. You know what that means. That was the main reason I bet Cincy last monday night.

 

[ACE-ACE]

The problem I'm having with this game is everyone and their sister is on SD. You know what that means. That was the main reason I bet Cincy last monday night.

at a book the cinn game was 4 bet to1 on denver

the SD GAME RIGHT NOW ITS 361 BETS VS 138 ON OAKLAND.....NOT EVERYONE ON SD.....

 

[OccamsRazor]

Kaya: The method is just a starting point for Capping ,Better PF and PA and better T.O. ratio. Of the games you mentioned, Seattle-8 vs Caro and Detroit+3 vs Dallas fit our starting point, the others don't. Both Seattle and Detroit have been inconsistent and as I rule, I stay away from inconsistent teams. I will though, put them in a small 3 team parlay with SD.

Raider QB Collins worse in league. SD tied with others for most wins ATS. From emotional point of view, SD won't look past their #1 hated rival, even though Raiders are struggling.

 

[kayaman]

What is this thread doing on the bottom of page 3? It should be on the top of page 1. Good call again this week. I was just wondering how would you work this system for the first six weeks of the season? Be waiting for this weekends play and looking forward to your NBA plays. Thanks

 

[OccamsRazor]

:biggrinin

SD dominated as expected. Bet did not turn out to be too good to be true. SD is now tied for the league lead in bringing home the money. Just a note, SD defense has not been tested the last 2 games due to opponents ineptness.

Detroit has some serious consistency problems. Its rare event for a team (Detroit) to win the TO battle and lose the game like they did.

 

[kayaman]

Occams, what's going on? I was just wondering where you get your lines from? I'm looking for a new book and was hoping you could give me some suggestions. Thanks